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Analyzing OPEC Member Crude Oil Production Quotas

Will Rodman | Data Science | Tulane University

Project Link: https://willcrodman.github.io

Introduction

This project dives into data about OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) crude oil production and OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries from 1960 to 2022. Including providing political context of OPEC and OECD, exploring their respective roles and significance in the global oil trade. The data source for this project is from the official OPEC website, which includes data such as crude oil production, demand, spot prices, refinery throughput, refinery capacity, and OPEC production quotas by country.

Founded in 1960, OPEC comprises a group of petroleum-exporting nations. OPEC was created with the primary aim of asserting collective control over their oil resources and global oil trade. OPEC's founding members included Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela. Over the years, the organization has expanded to include several other member nations, totaling 13.

It is important to focus on OPEC member nations due to their global importance as petroleum exporters. Alongside OECD countries, who are reliant on oil imports to meet their energy needs, and have historically been affected by changes in OPEC production quotas and embargoes. This by fixing production and suppliers, OPECs behaves like as cartel-style supplier.

Data Source: https://asb.opec.org/data/ASB_Data.php

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OPEC and OCED Organizations

While OPEC consists of major oil-producing nations such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and Venezuela, among others. OECD comprises economically advanced nations, primarily in Europe and North America, which heavily rely on oil imports to fulfill their energy requirements. Currently there are 38 member countries in OECD including the United States and United Kingdom.

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The primary difference between OPEC and free market nation in OECD is how OPEC acts as a cartel-style supplier. In economics, a cartel supplier is defined "a formal agreement between a group of producers of a good or service to control supply or to regulate or manipulate prices" (investopedia.com).

Crude Oil Production and Demand

Extract, Transform, and Load (ETL) Data

This imports crude oil production and demand for countries world wide (including all OPEC members) from 1960 to 2020. Crude Oil refers to the fossil fuel that exits in Earths geological formations. They will be stored in the project as Pandas DataFrames, along with a third DataFrame that describes countries domestic crude oil demand deficits per year.

$\text{Deficit}_{\text{year}} = \text{Production}_{\text{year}} - \text{Consumption}_{\text{year}}$

Because our two datasets do not have a perfect one-to-one matching, deficits cannot be computed for every country. This mean exploratory data analysis will be for all OPEC member countries and a limited number of OECD member countries. In addition here are the missing years for each country.

Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)

This analysis visualized production demand over time using a line plot and box plot, visualization are categorized by:

  1. The top five oil producers in 2023.
  2. OPEC member countries.
  3. OECD member countries with accessible data.

Box Plot Distribution

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The visualization show how OPEC countries have a negative crude oil deficit, while the median sample of OECD have a positive crude oil deficit. It is also show how large economies United States (OECD member) Canada (OECD member), Saudi Arabia (OPEC member) and Russia (OEPC+ member) can influence the distributions.

Oil Refinery Load and Capacity

Extract, Transform, and Load (ETL) Data

This imports crude oil refinery utilization and capacities for countries world wide (including all OPEC members) from 1980 to 2022. A Oil Refinery processes crude oil into various refined products, including gasoline, diesel, and petrochemicals. They will be stored in the project as Pandas DataFrames, along with a third DataFrame that describes countries utilization rates of oil refineries per year.

$\text{Utilization}_{\text{year}} = \frac{\text{Refinery Throughput}_{\text{year}}}{\text{Refinery Capacity}_{\text{year}}}$

Because our second datasets is larger then out first dataset, we do not have perfect one-to-one matching for our third dataset. In addition here are the missing years for each country.